Potential ash hazards: Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that any ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would drift northeastward.
Recent observations: The volcano is blanketed with new snow, which mantles the region to below the 3000-ft altitude, judging from the clear views in the US Forest Service Volcano Cam this morning. Seismicity has decreased steadily in the past week, both by reduced number of larger earthquakes (M2.5-3.0) and decreasing size of the mid-range earthquakes. A GPS receiver located 200 m north of the new dome creeps steadily north-northwest at about 10 cm per day. Observations yesterday by helicopter in the crater and from a fixed station on
the crater's eastern rim suggest the new dome continues to fracture and spread laterally. The process has been likened to “pancaking,” as the molten core yields and its solid carapace shatters. As a consequence, the dome's summit has been lowered broadly by a few tens of meters in the past two to three weeks, except for isolated high-standing remnants. Rockfalls and their associated rising dust clouds accompany this process. Virtually all these effects are limited to the dome and adjacent areas within 600 m radius, well within the crater. The combination of the GPS measurements adjacent to the dome and the qualitative estimate of lateral spreading suggest that extrusion of new lava continues. We still lack, however, an instrument on the new dome itself that might specify the rate and direction of propagation.
Also yesterday, two nonoperating GPS and sesmic monitoring stations in the crater were grappled by a helicopter sling line and pulled from the crater—scientific housekeeping, so to speak. A cover glass on our Sugarbowl dome cam (2.3 km from vent) was again replaced, owing to sandblasting by windborne sand and silt.