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2005 February 21

USGS Update 2005-Feb-21 09:45

Potential ash hazards: Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that any ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would drift southwestward to southward.

Potential ash hazards to aviation: Under current eruptive conditions, any ash clouds produced are unlikely to exceed 15,000 feet in altitude. Ashfall from such events rarely reaches more than 20 miles downwind. If the lava dome continues to grow over the next several months, it will become able to produce larger ash clouds that reach higher altitudes and extend farther downwind.

Recent observations: Yesterday afternoon, atmospheric conditions helped to create an impressive steam plume, but this morning there is only a minor amount of steam rising from several areas around the growing lava dome. Field work this coming week will focus on obtaining aerial photography for a new digital elevation model of the crater and lava dome and making other observations.